Abstract: The problem of urban household waste disposal restricts the sustainable development of the city and is the focus of attention at this stage. Using the system dynamics method, the causal circuit map of urban household waste is drawn by using VENSIM software, the stock flow model is established, and the proportion of total urban household waste and resource recovery is predicted. The results show that garbage classification is beneficial to resource recycling and reuse. Through the adjustment of the recovery price, the amount of garbage charges and the willingness to classify, the changes caused by the analysis system are most significant.

Key words: MSW, system dynamics, garbage disposal

摘要： 城市生活垃圾处理问题制约了城市的可持续发展,是现阶段关注的焦点。运用系统动力学方法,通过VENSIM软件绘制城市生活垃圾的因果回路图,建立存量流量模型,预测我国城市生活垃圾总量和资源回收量占比。结果显示:垃圾分类有利于资源回收再利用。通过对回收价格、垃圾收费额和分类意愿等指标的调整,分析系统产生的变化,市场引起的变化最为显著。

关键词: 城市生活垃圾, 系统动力学, 垃圾处理