Journal of Hebei University of Water Resources and Electric Engineering

Journal of Hebei University of Water Resources and Electric Engineering ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 39-44.DOI: 10.16046/j.cnki.issn1008-3782.2018.01.008

• Technology Theory and Application • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Inconsistency Flood Frequency Analysis and Design Flood Calculation under Environmental Change in Daqinghe River Basin

KANG Yan-fu1,CHEN E-yin1,LI Jian-zhu2,ZHANG Ting2   

  1. 1.Xingtai Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey,054000,Xingtai,Hebei,China;
    2.State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,300072,Tianjin,China

  • Received:2018-01-29 Revised:2018-03-08 Online:2018-03-31 Published:2018-04-30

环境变化条件下大清河流域非一致性洪水频率分析及设计洪水研究

康彦付1，陈峨印1，李建柱2，张 婷2   

  1. 1.河北省邢台水文水资源勘测局，邢台市守敬北路青年巷11号 054000;
    2.天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室，天津市津南区雅观路135号 300072

  • 作者简介:康彦付(1978-)，男，河北隆尧人，河北省邢台水文水资源勘测局高级工程师，主要从事水文水资源管理方面的工作｡E-mail:xtswkyf@126.com

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Abstract: In order to calculate the design flood in Daqinghe River basin under environmental change,the observed inconsistency flood data of 8sub-watersheds in Daqinghe River basin were used to calculate the design flood with the reduction method.Then the inconsistency flood frequency analysis models were established considering the model parameters varying over time,and the design flood in every sub-watershed was calculated under environmental change.The results showed that the model parameterμwas constant in Angezhuang and Hengshanling,and it decreased over time in Fuping,Longmen,Wangkuai,Xidayang,Zhangfang and Zijingguan.Compared with the design flood under stationarity,the design flood peak decreased under environmental change,moreover,the design flood peak reduced more significantly for floods with larger return periods.The results indicated that the revision of design flood was necessary under environmental change.

Key words: environmental change, inconsistency, flood frequency analysis, design flood

摘要： 为了推求变化环境下大清河流域设计洪水,采用大清河流域8个子流域实测非一致性洪水资料,利用传统还原方法进行了设计洪水推求,同时,构建了概率分布参数随时间变化的非一致性洪水频率分析模型,计算了环境变化条件下的各子流域设计洪水。结果表明:安各庄与横山岭2个子流域的最优分布参数为常数,阜平、龙门、王快、西大洋、张坊和紫荆关6个子流域洪水序列最优分布的分布参数μ都与时间呈反比;按照非一致性序列分析方法推求的设计洪峰流量和一致性条件下推求的设计洪峰流量相比均有明显的下降,且较大重现期的设计洪峰流量比一致条件下减小更为明显。这说明在环境变化条件下对设计洪水计算成果进行修订是非常必要的。

关键词:  , 环境变化, 非一致性, 洪水频率分析, 设计洪水

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