Abstract: The flood forecasting period of small and medium-sized rivers in Hebei Province is short and it cannot meet the needs of flood control and dispatching work.Taking the upper reaches of Zijingguan Basin of Juma River in Haihe River Basin as the research object,and the rainfall as coupling variable,using the mesoscale numerical atmospheric model and three-dimensional assimilation technology,the accuracy of rainfall forecast is improved.Taking the assimilated rainfall forecasting information as input,the coupled distributed Hebei rainfall-flood model is utilized to forecast the rainfall in the basin.On the premise of ensuring the accuracy of flood forecasting results,the purpose of effective prediction of flood forecast period is achieved.The results will provide technical support for the flood prevention and flood loss reduction,and it has wide application value in small and medium-sized basins in China.

Key words: basin, rainfall, coupling, flood prediction

摘要： 针对河北省中小河流洪水预报预见期短,不能较好满足防洪调度工作需要的实际问题,以海河流域大清河水系拒马河紫荆关以上流域为研究对象,以降雨为耦合变量,采用中尺度数值大气模式,利用三维同化技术,提高了降雨预报成果的准确度。再以同化预报降雨数据为输入,耦合分布式河北雨洪模型进行流域洪水预报,在保证洪水预报成果精度的前提下,有效延长了洪水预报成果的预见期。该成果将为主动应对洪水灾害、降低洪灾损失等提供技术支撑,在我国中小流域具有推广应用价值。

关键词: 流域, 降雨, 耦合, 洪水预报