河北水利电力学院学报

河北水利电力学院学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (2): 9-14.DOI: 10.16046/j.cnki.issn2096-5680.2026.02.002

• 水利工程与水利信息化 • 上一篇    下一篇

大坝群溃坝后果排序灰色模糊物元分析方法

黄梦婧1, 杨海浪2, 叶根苗3   

  1. 1.安徽水利水电职业技术学院资源与环境工程学院,安徽省合肥市合马路18号 231603;
    2.安徽省引江济淮集团有限公司质量安全环保部,安徽省合肥市滨湖新区云谷路2588号 230601;
    3.南京江北新区管理委员会生态环境和水务局水利管理办,江苏省南京市江北新区凤滁路48号 210031
  • 收稿日期:2025-08-23 修回日期:2025-12-09 出版日期:2026-06-30 发布日期:2026-06-22
  • 作者简介:黄梦婧(1992-),女,安徽芜湖人,讲师,主要从事水工结构与大坝安全监控教学及研究工作。E-mail:472251643@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    中共安徽省委教育工委、安徽省教育厅中青年教师培养行动“优秀青年教师培育”重点项目(YQYB2023176);安徽省教育厅高校科研重点项目(2025AHGXZK30934)

A Grey-Fuzzy Matter-Element Analysis Method for Prioritizing Dam-Break Consequences in Dam Groups

HUANG Mengjing1, YANG Hailang2, YE Genmiao3   

  1. 1. School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Anhui Water Conservancy Technical College, 231603, Hefei, Anhui, China;
    2. Anhui Provincial Group Limited for Yangtze-to-huaihe Water Diversion, Quality, Safety and Environmental Protection Department, 230601, Hefei, Anhui, China;
    3. Ecological Environment and Water Affairs Bureau of Nanjing Jiangbei New Area Management Committee, 210031, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
  • Received:2025-08-23 Revised:2025-12-09 Online:2026-06-30 Published:2026-06-22

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摘要： 为科学评估大坝溃坝后果严重程度并确定风险处置优先级,系统构建溃坝后果综合评估体系与指标分级标准,文中基于灰色系统理论、模糊数学与物元分析理论,提出一种适用于大坝群溃坝后果排序的灰色模糊物元分析方法。该方法有效整合生命损失、经济损失、环境影响和社会影响等多维度评价指标,通过关联度分析实现群坝溃坝后果的等级划分。理论分析与工程实例验证表明,该方法可为病险水库除险加固优先级决策提供科学依据。

关键词: 溃坝后果, 灰色模糊物元, 综合评估, 关联度

Abstract: To scientifically evaluate the severity of dam-break consequences and determine risk management priorities, and a comprehensive assessment system for dam-break consequences and its corresponding indicator grading standards, based on grey system theory, fuzzy mathematics, and matter-element analysis theory, a grey-fuzzy matter-element analysis method applicable for prioritizing the consequences of dam-break events within dam groups was proposed. This method effectively integrated multi-dimensional evaluation indicators, including life loss, economic loss, environmental impact, and social impact. The severity levels of dam-break consequences across the dam group were classified through correlation degree analysis. Theoretical analysis and case study verification demonstrated that the proposed method could provide a scientific basis for decision-making regarding the reinforcement priorities for dangerous reservoirs.

Key words: dam-break consequences, grey-fuzzy matter-element, comprehensive assessment, correlation degree

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