Abstract: In this paper, the Songhuajiang River Basin (Harbin section) was taken as the research area, and the landscape pattern prediction in 2025 was completed by Ca-Markov model; the landscape pattern metrics were extracted to analyze the landscape pattern in 2025; the landscape distribution in 2025 was divided into 6000 meter grids. The grid index of landscape ecological risk(LER) was constructed by the index of landscape vulnerability and the proportion of landscape type area combined with the weight assignment method of AHP. The spatial autocorrelation and spatial distribution of landscape ecological risk in 2025 were studied by using spatial variation function method. The results show that: ①from 2015 to 2025, the area of forest land, grassland and water area increased, while the area of construction land, cultivated land and unused land decreased; ②In 2025, the overall landscape ecological risk of the study area is relatively low, including 34.92%, 28.75%, 31.53%, 3.02% and 1.91% of the areas with lowest risk, lower risk, medium risk, higher risk and highest risk level, respectively; ③the overall Moran's I of the landscape ecological risk is 0.8242, showing a strong positive spatial correlation; the distribution of “low-low” value areas of landscape ecological risk is relatively concentrated. The range is distributed in the woodland landscape at the junction of Mulan county and Tonghe County, and the “high-high” value area is also concentrated, which is widely distributed in the construction land landscape of the main urban area.The results are helpful to improve the landscape ecological pattern of the study area,and provide scientific basis for rational use of land.

Key words: Songhua River Basin (Harbin section), landscape pattern, CA-Markov, landscape ecological risk

摘要： 文中以松花江流域(哈尔滨段)为研究区域,通过CA-Markov模型完成区域2025年景观格局预测;对区域2025年景观分布进行6000米网格划分,采用景观易损度指数及景观类型面积比重结合层次分析权重赋值法,构建并计算网格景观生态风险指数,对区域2025年景观生态风险的空间自相关关系及空间分布进行研究。结果表明:①从2015年到2025年,林地、草地和水域三种生态景观面积增大,建设用地、耕地和未利用地三种非生态景观面积减小;②2025年研究区域整体景观生态风险较低,其中低风险、较低风险、中等风险、较高风险和高风险等级面积比例分别为34.92%,28.75%,31.53%,3.02%和1.91%;③景观生态风险全局Moran's I为0.8242,呈现很强的空间正相关,景观生态风险“低—低”值区分布较为集中,大范围分布在木兰县和通河县交界处林地景观范围,“高—高”值区分布也较为集中,大范围分布在主城区建设用地景观范围。研究结果有助于完善研究区域的景观生态格局,为土地的合理利用提供科学依据。

关键词: 松花江流域(哈尔滨段), 景观格局, CA-Markov, 景观生态风险