Abstract: In order to quantitatively analyze the probability of dam failure and provide decision-making basis for dam risk analysis and evaluation, this paper integrates fuzzy set theory into the fault tree analysis method, studies the fuzzy fault tree analysis method of dam failure probability, specifically analyzes the traditional fault tree analysis method, fuzzy set theory, triangular fuzzy number method, and basic event probability determination method, clarifies the analysis process of the fuzzy fault tree analysis method of dam failure probability,and analyzes the dam failure mode.Finally, taking the calculation of the failure probability of an earth-rock dam as an example, the causes of the dam failure were analyzed in depth, and the top event, intermediate event, and basic event were identified. A fuzzy fault tree analysis model for the dam was established, and the probability of each basic event was triangulated and normalized. The comprehensive determination of the dam failure probability can provide a reference for the next step of risk assessment.

Key words: dam, failure probability, fuzzy set, fault tree

摘要： 为定量分析大坝失事概率,为大坝风险分析及评估提供决策依据,文中将模糊集理论融入事故树分析法中,研究了大坝失事概率模糊事故树分析方法,具体分析了传统事故树分析法、模糊集理论、三角模糊数方法及基本事件概率确定方法,明确了大坝失事概率模糊事故树分析法分析流程,分析了大坝失事模式。最后,以某土石坝失事概率计算为例,建立大坝模糊事故树分析模型,对各基本事件概率进行了三角归一化处理,综合确定了该坝失事概率,为下一步风险评估提供参考。

关键词: 大坝, 失事概率, 模糊集, 事故树