Abstract: Zhuolu County has carried out special research on early warning of water resources carrying capacity in order to establish a monitoring and early warning mechanism of water resources carrying capacity.Aiming at the current situation of water resources and development and utilization in Zhuolu County, this study adopts two means: factor evaluation method and analytic hierarchy process to objectively evaluate the current total water consumption of water resources, the exploitation of groundwater and the limited pollution in water functional areas. The evaluation result of factor evaluation method is that the evaluation conclusion of water quantity elements in Zhuolu County is in critical state, and the evaluation conclusion of water quality elements is in non overload state. The evaluation result of analytic hierarchy process is grade, and the comprehensive evaluation value is 0.813, which is between 0.8~1. Through the two evaluation methods, it is concluded that the water resources carrying capacity of Zhuolu County is in a critical state.

Key words: Zhuolu County, water resources carrying capacity, analytic hierarchy process

摘要： 涿鹿县为建立水资源承载能力监测预警机制,实施了水资源承载能力预警专项研究工作。本次研究针对涿鹿县境内水资源及开发利用现状,分别采用了因素评价法和层次分析法两种评价方法,客观地评价了现状水资源用水总量、地下水开采量、水功能区限制纳污状况。因素评价法评价水量要素评价结论为临界状态,水质要素评价结论为不超载状态。层次分析法评价等级综合评价值为0.813,处于0.8~1之间。通过两种评价方法均得出涿鹿县水资源承载能力状况为临界状态的结论。

关键词: 涿鹿县, 水资源承载能力, 层次分析法