Abstract: Taking the typical hydrological stations in the upper reaches of the Langchuan River Basin as the research object, the Mann-Kendall method and the cumulative anomaly method were adopted to conduct an in-depth analysis of the runoff trend. In this paper, the runoff data observed by four hydrological stations, namely Hexikou Station, Baimaoling Station, Yangshanling Station and Shijie Station, in the Langchuan River Basin over nearly 50 years (1970-2020) are selected and analyzed. It is found that the variation of water flow in the Langchuan River Basin is mainly comprehensively affected by factors such as precipitation, land use change and soil and water conservation conditions. The research results show that since 1970, the runoff volume of the Langchuan River Basin has generally shown a decreasing trend. Especially after 2000, the downward trend was obvious, and there was a sudden change point in 2015. This research method provides a reference for the basin water resources management in the southern Anhui region.

Key words: Langchuan River Basin, climate change, runoff trend, sustainable development

摘要： 以郎川河流域上游的典型水文站为研究对象,采用Mann-Kendall法和累积距平法对径流趋势进行深入分析。文中选取郎川河流域的合溪口站、白茅岭站、杨山岭站、誓节站4个水文站近50年的水文观测的径流量数据(1970-2020)为依据并进行分析,发现郎川河流域的水流量变化主要受降水量、土地利用变化以及水土保持情况等因素的综合影响。研究结果显示,自1970年以来,郎川河流域的径流量总体呈减少趋势,尤其在2000年后下降趋势明显,2015年存在突变点。该研究方法可为皖南地区流域水资源管理提供参考。

关键词: 郎川河流域, 气候变化, 径流变化趋势, 可持续发展