河北水利电力学院学报

河北水利电力学院学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1): 32-36.DOI: 10.16046/j.cnki.issn2096-5680.2021.01.006

• 技术理论与应用 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于SWAT模型的气候变化对唐河上游径流影响研究

高翔1，冯建1，司中强2，徐晶3   

  1. 1.临朐县综合行政执法局，山东省潍坊市临朐县兴隆路 262600；
    2. 中车环境科技有限公司，北京市丰台区汽车博物馆西路8号院 100160；
    3. 济南大学 水利与环境学院，山东 济南 250022



  • 收稿日期:2020-07-27 修回日期:2020-10-21 出版日期:2021-03-31 发布日期:2021-04-30
  • 通讯作者: 司中强，男，山东青州人，主要从事水环境及污水治理市场投资等方向。E-mail: sizhongqiang@crrcgc.cc
  • 作者简介:高翔，男，山东临朐人，主要从事水资源保护与水行政执法等方向。E-mail: 290147223@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    济南大学博士基金项目(XBS1919)

Research on the Impact of Climate Change on Upstream Runoff of Tang River Based on SWAT

Gao Xiang1，Feng Jian1，Si Zhong-qiang2，Xu Jing3   

  1. 1.Linqu County Comprehensive Administrative Law Enforcement Bureau,262600,Linqu,Shandong,China;
    2.CRRC Environmental Technology CO.,LTD.,100160,Beijing,China;
    3.School of Water Conservancy and Environment,University of Jinan,250000,Jinan,Shandong,China

  • Received:2020-07-27 Revised:2020-10-21 Online:2021-03-31 Published:2021-04-30

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摘要： 为研究降雨变化对唐河径流的影响，本研究通过构建SWAT模型，设置3种情景方式，定量分析了气候变化对唐河上游流域径流变化情况，结果表明：（1）SWAT模型在唐河上游流域具有较好的适用性，可以通过SWAT模型对该流域进行径流模拟，模型率定期的ENS和R2分别为0.65和0.73，验证期分别为0.7和0.76，满足模型精度要求；（2）降雨量增加20%和10%时，月均径流对应增加了7.65m3/s(8.9%)和4.37m3/s(5.1%)；降雨量减少20%和10%时，月均径流对应减少了5.2m3/s(6.1%)和2.03m3/s(2.4%)，气温分别增加1℃和2℃时，流域月均径流分别减少0.73m3/s(0.09%)和2.18m3/s (2.5%)，表明流域内的径流量变化与降雨量变化呈现正相关关系，与气温变化呈现负相关关系。通过预测唐河上游流域未来气候情景下径流量变化规律，可以给政策部门在未来水资源合理配置等方面提供科学的参考依据。

关键词: 气候变化, 径流变化, SWAT模型, 唐河流域

Abstract: In order to study the effects of climate change on the runoff of the upper reaches of the Tang River, the study used SWAT model and setting up three scenarios, quantitatively analyzes the change of climate change to the runoff of the upper reaches of Tang River, and the results show that:the calibration and validation results of SWAT model indicate that the simulation results meet the requiremrnt of the model.In the period of calibration, ENS is 0.65, R2 is 0.73.In the period of validation, ENS is 0.7, R2 is 0.76,and that the results were good for model.(ii)When precipitation increased by 20% and 10%, the average monthly runoff was increase 7.65m3/s (8.9%) and 4.37m3/s (5.1%). When precipitation was reduced by 20% and 10%, the average monthly runoff decreased by 5.2m3/s (6.1%) and 2.03m3/s (2.4%). When temperatures increased 1℃ and 2℃ respectively, the average monthly runoff in the basin decreased by 0.73m3/s (0.09%) and 2.18m3/s (2.5%), respectively. It shows that the change of runoff and rainfall in the basin are positively correlated with the change of temperature, and the change of temperature is negatively correlated. By predicting the rule of runoff under the future climate scenario of the upper reaches of Tang River basin, we can provide a scientific reference for the policy departments in the rational allocation of water resources in the future.

Key words: climate change, change of streamflow, SWAT model, Tang River Basin

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