关键词: 大坝, 失事概率, 模糊集, 事故树

Abstract: In order to quantitatively analyze the probability of dam failure and provide decision-making basis for dam risk analysis and evaluation, this paper integrates fuzzy set theory into the fault tree analysis method, studies the fuzzy fault tree analysis method of dam failure probability, specifically analyzes the traditional fault tree analysis method, fuzzy set theory, triangular fuzzy number method, and basic event probability determination method, clarifies the analysis process of the fuzzy fault tree analysis method of dam failure probability,and analyzes the dam failure mode.Finally, taking the calculation of the failure probability of an earth-rock dam as an example, the causes of the dam failure were analyzed in depth, and the top event, intermediate event, and basic event were identified. A fuzzy fault tree analysis model for the dam was established, and the probability of each basic event was triangulated and normalized. The comprehensive determination of the dam failure probability can provide a reference for the next step of risk assessment.

Key words: dam, failure probability, fuzzy set, fault tree